Why Erap might win

I have a nagging feeling that Erap will win this presidential election. Yes, that is my prediction. I am not rooting for Erap, but I think he will win this whole thing. Here is why:

Gibo has no way of winning. The only way is if they cheat, and even then, the people will not believe he won, and will not accept it.

Villar, despite accusations of “Villaroyo”, is a wildcard for GMA. They are not sure he will be kind to them when he is in power. Besides, he messed up his campaign big time lately, with those fake psychiatric reports, and with that “Mom is crying on TV” thing. I don’t think he will win this too, and as an aside, I think this is Villar’s last hoorah … I believe he is done after this. He cannot make another successful run again after this, even if he wants to.

Erap is the closest one. Latest survey says Noynoy is up 22 points from second placer Erap. I don’t believe it. The survey may be right, but only in the context that it surveyed only 2,400 respondents. But Mindanao is where its at. That is Erap country. And when the vote from there comes in, the ‘gap’ will be a lot closer than that. The gap may even shift in his favor.

Now, stepping into GMA’s miniscule shoes and genius mind, this is how I would think. I will be prosecuted if somebody not friendly to me wins, so I will find a way to “make” the person friendly to me, win. Sige na nga, i will find a way to cheat. And you know she can do it. Based on my above evaluation, Gibo and Villar is, at this point, unacceptable to the people.

If it is Gibo, masyadong obvious na dinaya. If Villar, it is also a possibility, but again, he is a wildcard now. But Erap … he has overtaken Villar on the surveys, and surveys poison the people’s mind so he is more acceptable. And if he wins, I doubt People Power will materialize. I am quite sure there will be no People Power if he does win.

Erap will be kind to GMA. She pardoned him. It was upheld by the Supreme Court (all but two appointed by GMA at that time). The Supreme Court (all but one appointed by GMA at that time) also ruled, with finality, that Erap can still run despite being impeached and jailed. It was GMA who pardoned him, it was GMA’s Supreme Court that allowed him to run again.

So there you go. I predict it is Erap. The way the automation is being handled, which is a disaster waiting to happen, they can make anything happen. Erap wins, GMA wins and becomes House Speaker, they control the numbers in Congress. They impeach him again.