Post election thoughts

– I have never been so happy being wrong.

– Jejomar Binay on the upset of the century. They should put Mar on a suicide watch. And Korina in a straight jacket. Seriously, I feel bad for Mar, but Binay’s team deserves all the credit for a great campaign.

– All but one of my senators will NOT make it. Winnie Monsod made a good point … of those who now appears to be winning, only two are new. Even then, they have prominent names: Marcos and Guingona. That is why we were encouraging people to bring their “studied” list when they vote. Without their list, top-of-mind rule applied … familiar names were selected: Revilla, Estrada, Drilon, Enrile, Guingona, Marcos, Osmena, Recto, Lapid. Same old shit.

– Noynoy will win by the biggest margin ever seen in Philippine presidential election. As of this writing, he is ahead of Erap by 4.8M votes, whereas Erap previously won the presidency by just more than 3M.

– Now that we see how much vote Villar got, I tend to think he paid for survey results, or at the very least manipulated. And that we now should distrust all those surveys. For how can they explain their result that Villar was just a few points behind, when he is now behind Noynoy by almost 9 million votes!. The survey said Villar is at 19%, so let us do the math:

• 45M registered voters, with 85% turnout, so baseline is 38M votes;
• 19% of 38M is 7.3M, where as Villar now has only 4.9M with almost 90 percent of votes tallied

– Smartmatic deserves our congratulations, but only for the quick results, and from the looks of it, the REAL results. Everything else before that … the preparations, the CF cards, etc … you deserve all the flak you got. Yes, I personally apologize for predicting a disaster, but you should also apologize to us for the near heart attack you gave us prior to election.

– ABS-CBN’s coverage was wider, their reports better, their visuals more appealing. GMA’s virtual TV screen was just ridiculous … what’s the need for the virtual TV when you have the actual video report anyway? But all of that advantage was put to waste, because GMA TV was waaay ahead in the updates of the vote tally. If I remember right, I was tuned in to GMA TV almost the entire time because their tally was ahead of ABS-CBN by around 3 million.

– I stopped wearing my yellow-ribbon pins and ballers, as we all should. The mandate has been given by the people, no need for political colors anymore. Anything else will just be gloating, and unnecessarily partisan, whereas we all should just rally behind the winners, even if we dislike them.

Villar just sealed his fate

Manny Villar just finished himself off. And showed his true color. After latest poll surveys came out and showed that Erap has overtaken him, he became pious and said he is bowing to the “Lord’s will,” but on the same breath lashed out at Noynoy like a fist of an angry god.

“Ako’y tinatanong, ano raw kaibahan naming halimbawa ni Noynoy? Si Noynoy daw ay maka-Diyos, e alam ko naman ho pinagtatawanan niya ang nanay niya e. Simba ng simba. Sa atin lang ho naman yan

“Ang pagkakaalam ko ang Diyos lang ang walang bahid, and to my surprise, our people are buying that again,” he said.

“Number one, Diyos lang ang walang bahid. Pangalawa, talaga naming malamang konti lang ang bahid mo dahil wala ka ngang nagagawa

“Paano ka naman mababahiran, papaano ka mapuputikan nang hindi ka naman lumulusong sa putik. Hindi ka naman magsasaka, airconditoned ang bahay mo, di natural wala kang putik.”

And then lashed out at the Aquino family (which, last I looked, included Cory, who is adored by the people, and Ninoy, who is a hero):

“Hindi na tinatanong ano na ba ang nagawa noong kandidato? Na parang napakahalaga sa atin ang apelyido. Sino ka ba? Sino ba ang pamilya mo?”

Hell has no fury like a woman scorned. Wait … what?
And then:

“Whatever happens, ako’y naniniwala na mananalo pa rin ako [I still believe that I will win]. I’m very confident,” drawing cheers from the crowd.

Yeah, right.

Villar is done. He will never be the same man again. He might not make it back on top again, not enough to make another run for the presidency. This was his chance, and it is gone … maybe forever.

Why Erap might win

I have a nagging feeling that Erap will win this presidential election. Yes, that is my prediction. I am not rooting for Erap, but I think he will win this whole thing. Here is why:

Gibo has no way of winning. The only way is if they cheat, and even then, the people will not believe he won, and will not accept it.

Villar, despite accusations of “Villaroyo”, is a wildcard for GMA. They are not sure he will be kind to them when he is in power. Besides, he messed up his campaign big time lately, with those fake psychiatric reports, and with that “Mom is crying on TV” thing. I don’t think he will win this too, and as an aside, I think this is Villar’s last hoorah … I believe he is done after this. He cannot make another successful run again after this, even if he wants to.

Erap is the closest one. Latest survey says Noynoy is up 22 points from second placer Erap. I don’t believe it. The survey may be right, but only in the context that it surveyed only 2,400 respondents. But Mindanao is where its at. That is Erap country. And when the vote from there comes in, the ‘gap’ will be a lot closer than that. The gap may even shift in his favor.

Now, stepping into GMA’s miniscule shoes and genius mind, this is how I would think. I will be prosecuted if somebody not friendly to me wins, so I will find a way to “make” the person friendly to me, win. Sige na nga, i will find a way to cheat. And you know she can do it. Based on my above evaluation, Gibo and Villar is, at this point, unacceptable to the people.

If it is Gibo, masyadong obvious na dinaya. If Villar, it is also a possibility, but again, he is a wildcard now. But Erap … he has overtaken Villar on the surveys, and surveys poison the people’s mind so he is more acceptable. And if he wins, I doubt People Power will materialize. I am quite sure there will be no People Power if he does win.

Erap will be kind to GMA. She pardoned him. It was upheld by the Supreme Court (all but two appointed by GMA at that time). The Supreme Court (all but one appointed by GMA at that time) also ruled, with finality, that Erap can still run despite being impeached and jailed. It was GMA who pardoned him, it was GMA’s Supreme Court that allowed him to run again.

So there you go. I predict it is Erap. The way the automation is being handled, which is a disaster waiting to happen, they can make anything happen. Erap wins, GMA wins and becomes House Speaker, they control the numbers in Congress. They impeach him again.

Election Day Awareness

On one previous COMELEC mock polls/dry run/test, less than 600 were able to finish voting during an 11-hour window from 7AM to 6PM. Now that we have clustered precincts, there will be anywhere from 600 to 1,000 voters per clustered precinct.

So go to your voting places early. If you still do not know where or what your precinct number is (it is not the old one anymore), COMELEC has a precinct finder for registered voters. You are not registered? Shame on you, you do not have a right to complain about the government and its officials.

Aside from going early, make sure to come prepared. It is almost guaranteed that there will be a line, so as individuals, let us eliminate time-wasting ignorance and come ready.

• At least a day before election day, know your precinct number by going to your barangay officials, going to the school or polling places where you will vote, or checking COMELEC online here.

• Make a list, so as not to waste time. Sample ballots should be available from your barangays by this date, ask for a copy and use that to make your list (kodigo), so you can fill up quickly. Remember, there will be old people, first time voters, and other “makulits” that will hold up the line and the process … do not be one of them.

• Bring a valid ID with picture. Approach the BEI when it is your turn, they will check your ID and your fingernails for indelible ink. You will sign on the voter’s list and the BEI will authenticate the ballot by affixing their signatures before they hand it over to you inside a secrecy folder.

• Before leaving the BEI’s table, check your ballot very well. Except for the signatures, it should not be filled in, it should be clean of any markings, it should not be folded, and there are no scratches on it specially on the bar codes around the edges. If you see something wrong with your ballot, you can ask for it to be replaced. This is your only chance to have it replaced. If you destroy or invalidate you ballot after this process, you DO NOT get a replacement anymore. You would also be provided a marker. Use this instead of your own ballpen or marker.

• Vote only 1 President, 1 Vice President, and 12 Senators, other wise your vote is invalid. You can vote less if you want, but not more. Fully shade the bilog na hugis itlog beside your candidate’s name. It is OK if you shade beyond the oval space, ‘wag lang OA ang paglagpas.

• When you are done, approach the PCOS machine. Do not let anyone, including the BEIs, to touch your ballot. On the PCOS display, look at the count before you insert your ballot, and look again after, and make sure your ballot got counted. You can insert the ballot in any direction. Wait for that “Congratulations …” on the display before leaving the machine.

• Legally you can try four times, and then if it still does not accept your ballot, the BEI will mark your ballot as spoiled or invalid, put it in an envelope for invalid ballots, and that’s it, you lost your chance to make a difference. So handle that ballot very carefully, that cannot be stressed enough.

On May 7, it was planned that PCOS machines will be at the voting precincts, and the assigned BEIs and representatives will conduct demos and tests to the public. If you can, be there at your precincts for this, so you can observe and see if your PCOS works.

However, with recent developments on those CF cards, I am not sure if the May 7 tests can push through. I feel veeeerry anxious about this automation process, I am seriously thinking it has been designed to fail. Not the entire process, but in areas where attention and vigilance is low.

Let us not allow that. If you see something irregular happening, it is within your every right to question it. Having said that, the BEIs or the teachers have had very little training on this new process and on the PCOS machines themselves. Let us be kind to them, be considerate, and be helpful.

Pray, citizens. Let us pray for a peaceful election process, and more importantly, pray that the results will reflect the real will of the people.

2010 Elections: I will vote for …

This is going to be a long post, and a bit “colorful”, so bear with me. Bold blue gets my vote, Red does not.

I will vote for Neric Acosta (Liberal Party), former 8-yr Congressman of Bukidnon (N.Mindanao), where he was the principal author of the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act, which became model legislations not just in our country but in Asia. Now Associate Prof. at AIM and Ateneo. Platform: decentralization of power to local governments, better fiscal discipline, and improvement of basic services.

I am borderline on some children of former Senators, but I will vote for Ruffy Biazon, Congressman from Muntinlupa, son of retired general and Senator Rodolfo Biazon, author of Tobacco Regulations Act (think “Government Warning: Cigarette smoking is dangerous to your health”), and the “Anti-Violence Against Women and Their Children Act of 2004.”

I will NOT vote Ramon Bong Revilla, and NOT vote for Jinggoy Estrada. If you are wondering why, on an alphabetical listing on the ballot Revilla is at number 8, it is because he legally changed his surname to “Bong Revilla” so he would not be listed at around 49 or 50. So his wife, Lani Mercado, is now probably legally named Lani Mercado-Bong Revilla.

Despite her continued support for Manny Villar, I will vote for Pia Cayetano, daughter of the late ‘compañero’ Sen. Rene Cayetano, youngest woman to be elected as Philippine Senator. A lawyer and a triathlete, she focuses on health, education, environment, youth and women’s empowerment. Authored the Magna Carta for Women, the Cheaper Medicines Law of 2008, and the Hospital Detention Law, which says hospitals cannot refuse discharge of indigent patients with unpaid hospital bills.

I will vote for Martin Bautista, because he gave up a very successful medical career in the US, to give back to the country. I like people who can make sacrifices like this. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKGu7dSYT1s). If I am allowed to campaign for only one candidate in this election, this is the guy.

I will NOT vote Silvestre ‘Bebot’ Bello, GMA’s current Cabinet Secretary, former Justice Secretary during Cory Aquino’s time, and Solicitor General under Fidel Ramos’ administration, where he was also the Chief Negotiator for the NDF peace talks (remember Col. Aguinaldo?). A human rights lawyer, his platform is on peace and justice.

I will not vote Joey De Venecia, son of former Speaker Joe De Venecia, running on anti-corruption campaign (what an irony), creation of millions of IT jobs, and long-term sustainable economic development. Experienced in global business and finance, he was a principal witness against the ZTE Broadband deal. I think he is shady.

I will NOT vote for Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Johnny Enrile, Lito Lapid, Ralph Recto, Tito Sotto, Kit Tatad. They have been in the Senate for years, I don’t want old-timers in there anymore. For the same reason, even if I like him, i will NOT vote for Frank Drilon. You guys had your chance, and you all made a mess out of it.

I will vote for Alexander Lacson (he is not related to Ping), who wrote the beautiful poem “I Am Filipino”, because his positivism is infectious and he is a genuinely good person. He is a lawyer by profession, has taken post graduate studies at Harvard, and served as legal counsel for the UNDP in the Philippines. Believe me, he will inspire you, and hopefully the chamber of Senate.

I will NOT vote for TG Guingona, Susan Ople, and Gwen Pimentel, because I have such high-respect and admiration for their fathers, and I don’t want them capitalizing on that. But on the same breath I will vote for Mon-mon Mitra, because I would like to see his advocacy of cheaper, cleaner, sustainable, and renewable energy prosper in the Senate floor, and because we need a soldier in the Senate specially now that the great Pong Biazon is not there anymore.

I will NOT vote Danilo Lim, and despite being the most awarded soldier in Philippine history (he has received all medals and awards a soldier can be given, except one: the Wounded Soldier Medal) I will NOT vote for Ariel Querubin. I will NOT vote for Jovito Palparan either.

I will vote for Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel. Representative for the Akbayan party-list and a broadcaster, she authored the Cheaper Medicines Law (counterpart of Mar Roxas’ bill in the Senate), and was responsible for the increase in tax exemptions for minimum wage earners. A bit of trivia: she sings! (you’ll find this video surprising … the 3rd child is Monique Wilson, the 4th is Lea Salonga, the 6th is Risa Hontiveros, and the 7th is Raymond Lauchengco)

I will NOT vote for Kata Inocencio, Rey Langit, Alex Tinsay, Imelda Papin, and I will lump into that Gilbert Remulla.

I will NOT vote for Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza, because really, what are you doing dancing on the streets and affiliating with him?

I will vote Serge Osmena, a staunch believer that we should develop our countryside instead, because that is where the real workers are. 80% of his infrastructure projects are at the rural areas. He has funded the most number of classrooms among all Senators, almost a thousand classrooms. He also authored the Absentee Voting Law, which allowed our OFWs to cast their vote.

I will NOT vote for Sonia Roco, I don’t like it when they say that she will “continue the legacy left by her husband,” (Senator and Ex-presidentiable Raul Roco). Sa dinami-dami ng issues that you can tackle, can’t you run on your own platform?

Bongbong Marcos is still a wildcard for me, but I am leaning on NO for now.

I will NOT vote Adel Tamano, because historically, he is not careful who he associates with. I think his principles are based on his own convenience only.

Let us discuss. With a few days left, I still am open to changing my mind.

Is Manila ready for a major earthquake?

We all know the answer. We are just simply pushing it at the back of our heads, ignoring it, because, really, what can we do about it?

As an aside, it is disconcerting the way the reporter (Anna Coren) phrased some of her sentences:

“It concedes, if the the big one does hit, nothing can stop the carnage.”

… carnage? And then she concludes with …

“It’s little comfort for a city that’s only too aware its time will eventually come.“

Sweet dreams everyone! Thanks CNN!
Somehow I got the feeling that they are rooting for it to happen.

Actual video at CNN website

Bedtime story

In a land not so far, far away, there lived an Ogre. This Ogre lives beyond the mountains that borders the city. Nobody has seen the Ogre, nobody knows what he looks like, the people of the city just knows that it is there. And for generations the residents fear this Ogre, and try to pacify it by offering at the foot of the mountain their harvests, their golds and treasures, their virgins, money, and food. Until today, they fear that if they do not make these offerings, the Ogre will come around and over the mountain and into their city, destroy their farms and houses, and eat their children.

These offerings have left the city impoverished, and its people miserable. So every year or so, a member of the community would have the courage to bring his weapons and try to end the city’s misery by going over the mountain and attempting to kill the Ogre. And through all these years, after all the attempts, men after men, nobody has ever returned.

One night, a father sat his son down and said, “My son, tomorrow before dawn, I will leave you and your Mom, go to the mountains and I will kill the Ogre. But I will be back, and when I do, the city will make me a hero.” But he never did come back. Just like all the other Ogre slayers. And so the son trained, practiced his skills, and built up, and a year after, decided to avenge his father. “It is my turn, and I will come back,” said the boy.

And so the day came, and the son went over the mountain to confront and kill the monster that killed his father, and the other Slayers. But when he got there, he didn’t see the Ogre. He saw the remains and the bones of the other who attempted, but he didn’t see the Ogre. What he saw was his own father(!), sitting on top of the gold and the treasures, bloated and eating the harvests and food.

I will leave you to your own conclusions as to how it ended. But the point is, there was no Ogre, or at least not the type of Ogre everybody imagined it to be. The other Slayers saw who was there, killed it for what it has done, and decided to stay and not return! They were blinded by the gold and treasures, and tempted with the power, and decided they wanted it for themselves.

I believe most elected officials had good intentions why they wanted the positions they were running for. I even believe Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo had every good intentions and aspirations for the country when she stepped into the Presidency. But power has a way of corrupting people, and good intentions are laid to ruins to acquire and perpetuate this power.

In an article from The Economist called “The Psychology of Power” (Jan 2010), it maintains that power only corrupts those who think they deserve it.

“… people with power that they think is justified break rules not only because they can get away with it, but also because they feel at some intuitive level that they are entitled to take what they want. This sense of entitlement is crucial to understanding why people misbehave in high office. In its absence, abuses will be less likely. The word “privilege” translates as “private law” … the sense which some powerful people seem to have that different rules apply to them is not just a convenient smoke screen. They genuinely believe it.”

And that is why I will vote for Noynoy Aquino for President, because I believe that among the candidates, he is the only one who does not feel we owe him something. In fact, i genuinely think he believes HE owes US something. And because I believe that among the candidates, he is the least likely to be tempted by power. He doesn’t even want to run in the first place.

The article further said:

“Perhaps the lesson, then, is that corruption and hypocrisy are the price that societies pay for being led by alpha males (and, in some cases, alpha females).

The alternative, though cleaner, is leadership by wimps.”

I believe Noynoy has been called that, too. Between an Ogre and a wimp, the choice is easy.

Natatawa ako …

I don’t watch Pilipinas Got Talent, and I believe I am not missing much. But this surprised me:

I miss Yano. I wonder where they are now?.

Manikurista at hardinero

There is just no bottom to how Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo bastardizes the government. As if she has not insulted us enough, we are now paying for the “promotion” of her manikurista and hardinero!

“Malacañang on Wednesday confirmed reports that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s manicurist has been appointed as board member of the Pag-IBIG Housing Fund.

… aside from Carpon, Mrs. Arroyo also appointed her gardener, Armando Macapagal, as deputy of the Luneta Park Administration.”

Reports have it that GMA, in 2002, also appointed her dentist as board examiner for dentistry, and was later on promoted to Chairperson of the Philippine Regulatory Commission (PRC). It was during this PRC term that the leakage of the 2006 nursing licensure exam was discovered.

“Ang kanya pong kakatawanin is precisely yung maliliit na empleyado na siyang nangangailangan ng serbisyo ng Pag-IBIG (What she will represent are precisely those small employees who need the services of Pag-IBIG). Let us not hold her lowly status against her,” (Deputy Malacanang Spokesperson Gary) Olivar said in the report … “

You are missing the point, you puppet. We do not have anything against your manikurista … we do not even know her. We did not even say ‘lowly status’ because unlike you, we are from the ‘lowly status’ bracket. What we are up in arms about is the gall (tagalog: kapal ng mukha) of your president. Yes, PAG-IBIG’s board needs representation from ordinary government employees, but is there no one else more qualified? Your appointee will be receiving P130,000 a month in per diem! Guaranteed two-year term! Aba, eh pera namin yun!

Alam mo ba na nung oath-taking at unang board meeting sana last week, eh hindi naka-attend yung appointee ng presidente mo? Bakit kamo? Eh kasi, sinama ng presidente mo sa US at Spain, kaya sa halip na nasa board meeting sana, ayun at nililinis ang kuko ng presidente mo.

And I wonder why no one is asking … these appointments most probably violated Section 15, Article VII of the constitution, banning presidential appointments two (2) months before an election. But then again, since when did GMA care about the constitution?

A Better Tomorrow, you say?

What is wrong in this billboard? There are two actually.